#FlattenTheCurve
Raise your hand if you’ve just heard this term for the first time this week. (It’s okay; most people fall into this category).
As the world faces an historic time battling the coronavirus, it’s become clear that it’s no longer upon governments to protect citizens; it’s upon all of us. Businesses and organizations have found themselves on the front lines of leadership as elected officials struggle to understand the illness and how to best manage it.
With conflicting information and sometimes biased sources, it can become very difficult to sort out what’s true and what isn’t; what demands immediate action and what doesn’t.
As the foundation of the global economy, it’s imperative that business acts now, in the short-term to save society – and the economy – in the longterm.
This means instituting work from home wherever possible, stepping up to fill the gaps for those in society who might not otherwise have protection, and taking measures that place people over profits by opening up tools and technologies that can offer the insights needed to keep society going.
What does #FlattenTheCurve mean?
By now, everyone is affected by the drastic cancellations and closings, as events, businesses, schools, sports, and entertainment venues have shuttered over the last couple of weeks.
What many people don’t understand is why these actions are necessary.
Let’s break it down:
First, testing for coronavirus is absolutely crucial to fending it off.
Vox’s Brian Resnick and Dylan Scott explain: “Accurate testing is critical to stopping an outbreak: When one person gets a confirmed diagnosis, they can be put in isolation where they won’t spread the disease further. Then their contacts can be identified and put into quarantine — so that they don’t spread the virus if they’ve become infected, too. That’s particularly important for a virus like this one, which seems able to spread before people show symptoms, or when their symptoms are mild.”
The World Health Organization stresses that countries who’ve been able to control the disease have a common link: aggressive, early testing. Case in point, three weeks ago Italy had three cases. It now has over 15,000, and over 1,000 deaths. This has lead to a complete overwhelming of their healthcare systems, where doctors are now being forced to make nearly unthinkable choices.
Conversely countries where aggressive testing was enforced, like Hong Kong and Singapore, have avoided outbreaks that halt society.
With tests in the United States grossly unavailable, it’s especially crucial that we enact strict measures to stop the unmitigated spread of the disease, which leads us to the next point:
Healthy people can carry the virus, infecting those with compromised immune systems and the elderly.
This is why it’s critical that we enact social distancing and shut down businesses, public places, and gatherings – even the most innocent of interactions can have the most dire consequences.
Howard Markel, M.D., Ph.D., a University of Michigan expert who has studied the effects of similar responses to past epidemics, explains #FlattenTheCurve:
“An outbreak anywhere can go everywhere,” he says. And right now, “we all need to pitch in to try to prevent cases both within ourselves and in our communities.”
The cancelations and closings help to slow the rate of infection, which helps to stop our healthcare system from becoming overwhelmed:
The above image explains #FlattenTheCurve, representing two scenarios that could happen when facing a pandemic like this.
The blue curve demonstrates what will happen if an abundance of the population becomes sick at once. This would quickly grind healthcare availability to a halt.
The yellow curve demonstrates the ability of our healthcare system to care for those who become sick if we slow the rate of infection.
The New York times reports a very important point:
“A crucial thing to understand about the coronavirus threat — and it’s playing out grimly in Italy — is the difference between the total number of people who might get sick and the number who might get sick at the same time. Our country has only 2.8 hospital beds per 1,000 people.
That’s fewer than in Italy (3.2), China (4.3) and South Korea (12.3), all of which have had struggles. More important, there are only so many intensive care beds and ventilators. It’s estimated that we have about 45,000 intensive care unit beds in the United States. In a moderate outbreak, about 200,000 Americans would need one.”
The very difficult truth about leadership is that it requires actions that might not be popular, vision to foresee consequences, and bravery to act – despite objections – for the betterment of humankind.
As Amanda Magee noted, “We are up to this challenge. Our global community needs us to show up for this fight. Ultimately, everything that each of us does to participate in breaking the chain of infection will make us stronger.”
Business has the ability to drive and encourage the actions required to #FlattenTheCurve. Once this is over, people will remember those who acted and those who did not – let us be on the right side of history.
