Want fries with that? Plant-based meat trend is for real

With US meat giant Tyson Foods jumping into the alternative protein market, it’s looking like the plant-based meat trend will last far beyond its pandemic-fueled surge.

Tyson Foods’ vegan meat products join a space crowded with leading brands like Beyond Meats and Impossible Foods. Tyson said its new pea-protein hamburgers and sausages are designed for consumers looking for “more satisfying, plant-based options for the grill.”

The market for plant-based meat is hot as growing consumer health, environmental, and animal welfare concerns drive demand. Analysts estimate the market will grow to $450 billion by 2040 as the supply of conventional meat drops more than 30%.

Last year, the pandemic drove increased demand for protein alternatives as COVID-19 upended the food supply chain and wreaked havoc on the meat industry. According to a Bloomberg report, Beyond Meat’s share price grew 59% since March 2020, compared to Tyson’s 32%.

Recent reports of a nationwide chicken shortage could help drive even more demand for protein alternatives.

Plant-based meat: here, there, and everywhere

Today, you can find all kinds of fake meat – beef, chicken, and fish – at the grocery store and on the menus of high-end restaurants and fast-food joints alike. You can even get a fake burger at the ballpark.

There have been vegetarian meat replacements for years — the veggie burger first hit the market in 1982 — but the launch of companies like Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods about a decade ago transformed the market.

Made from pure plant protein, the newer alternatives imitate the look and taste of meat in an attempt to satisfy real meat eaters, as well as the conscience of folks who love the taste of meat, but cannot stomach the guilt of eating it.

Burger King started selling its Impossible Whopper in 2019, and its vegan options also include french fries made in vegetable oil. This spring, the fast-food chain launched faux chicken options in the UK.

Meanwhile, McDonald’s partnered with Beyond Meat and is testing a new “McPlant” burger. And at the other end of the dining spectrum, the chef of one of Manhattan’s top restaurants plans to serve a meat free menu when he reopens the business after a long pandemic-induced closure.

With their protein alternatives, restaurants and food producers aim to appeal to a growing number of consumers concerned about the environmental and health impacts of real meat production. The producers of plant-based protein have touted their processes as inherently safer than traditional meat production, and factory farming has long come under fire for its negative impact on the planet.

Millennials and Gen Zers are leading the charge towards meat-free diets. One survey found that 15% of Millennials favor vegetarian or vegan diets while 35% of Gen Zers are going meatless.

Real meat, plant-based meat, and the pandemic effect

The plant-based meat was already on an upward trajectory when COVID hit. But it surged during the early days of the pandemic last spring as the animal meat industry struggled.

Workers in animal meat processing plants fell ill and plants were shuttered. Farmers with nowhere to process their livestock and meat companies faced with the loss of commercial demand euthanized millions of farm animals.

The grisly turn of events highlighted the plight of farm animals. A report that a large pork producer gassed and slowly roasted thousands of pigs to death is enough to make even diehard meat lovers queasy.

Sales of meat alternatives jumped during two weeks in March 2020 as consumers hoarded food of all kinds, according to market-research firm IRI. Meat alternatives continued to see gains in the following months, trending between 50% and 60% ahead of 2019 levels, IRI reported.

Growth numbers reported by the Plant Based Foods Association are particularly impressive (although not surprising, given source). Sales of plant-based meat in the US surged 45%, pushing up the value of the category to $1.4 billion in 2020, up from $962 million in 2019, according to data from PBFA and The Good Food Institute. Eighteen percent of US households now buy plant-based meat, up from 14%, the industry groups said.

Changing tastes, growing choices

Of course, people continued to buy animal meat during the pandemic despite rising prices, and animal meat sales soared. According to IRI, the traditional meat department generated an additional $8.6 billion in sales for US grocery stores compared to $106 million for refrigerated plant-based meat alternatives.

And real meat is still usually cheaper. That’s key, especially when so many people have lost jobs and are struggling to make ends meet in the wake of COVID. Plus, why not just eat natural plant proteins like beans and nuts instead of heavily processed fake meat?

But these facts remain:

1. Moves by meat giants like Tyson into plant-based protein signal a market shift
2. Plant-based meat in grocery stores and restaurants continues to proliferate
3. Consumer environmental and social concerns are driving change

In its analysis of the impact of meat-less alternatives on the multi-billion meat industry, consulting firm Kearney examines the challenges the global agriculture and meat business faces. Solutions for making conventional meat production are “almost exhausted,” analysts said in their report.

The report closes with an intriguing question. When cultured meat and meat replacement products can be produced affordably at scale, could consumers make their own meat like they do bread or beer?