With December behind us, the commerce industry is getting its first glimpse of 2024’s overall holiday performance. While final retail sales numbers are still being finalized, early indications point to an average—or slightly below average—season.
The National Retail Federation (NRF) projected holiday spending growth of 2.5%–3.5% (Nov 1–Dec 31), falling short of last year’s 3.9%. Meanwhile, data from Mastercard SpendingPulse shows Nov 1–Dec 24 sales up 3.8% year-over-year, while the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor notes November sales rose 2.35%.
Regardless of where the final tally settles, it’s already clear that winners and losers have emerged:
- Value-focused retailers: Brands like Aldi, Walmart, and Amazon benefited from price-conscious shoppers.
- China-based platforms: Low-cost marketplaces such as Temu, Shein, and TikTok Shops captured a significant share of growth.
- Traditional retailers: Department stores and consumer electronics chains appear to have underperformed.
All told, 2024 was marked by consumers trading down and actively seeking the highest possible value. This trend has put pressure on mid-tier and specialty retailers to respond with sharper pricing, more compelling product mixes, and innovative digital experiences.
Looking ahead to NRF 2025: Cost, AI, and new revenue streams
Now that the holiday dust has settled, the retail world’s attention turns to the National Retail Federation Big Show in New York City, January 11–14. This annual gathering offers a preview of the innovations, technology, and strategies that will shape the year ahead. While the NRF Big Show always holds a few surprises, expect three central themes to dominate:
- New revenue streams beyond traditional sales
Retailers are increasingly exploring revenue sources such as services, data, and especially retail media networks. While Amazon, Walmart, and Instacart have made retail media mainstream, smaller chains and specialty retailers are still figuring out how to make these networks equally effective. Attendees will see the evolution of best practices—from harnessing granular customer data to creating valuable media opportunities for brand partners. - Artificial Intelligence everywhere
AI is poised to transform nearly every corner of retail—from streamlining supply chain management and preventing fraud to automating product development and personalizing customer experiences. While many legacy solutions may try to “AI-wash” their offerings with buzzwords, there will also be genuine innovation around reducing costs and enhancing customer experiences. Keep an eye on retailers using AI to reinvent entire processes, such as AI-based product design (seen at companies like Shein) or new voice and chat interfaces that can handle product research and recommendations. - Focus on margin and cost reduction
With consumers showing a willingness to “trade down” and new competitors from China reshaping the growth landscape, the new priority in 2025 is making sure every sale is profitable. Look for solutions that help minimize operational costs, optimize inventory, and increase margins. Technology and data will be front and center here, as retailers adopt more advanced analytics, automation, and process-improvement tools.
SAP at NRF: Don’t miss these highlights
Join SAP at booth #4323 and find out for yourself how SAP helps retailers address these challenges. Whether you’re looking for ways to capitalize on new business models, harness AI effectively, or drive down costs, SAP’s solutions and partner ecosystem offer a comprehensive toolkit.
Interactive showcase and demos
Step into a curated journey at Retail’s Big Show to discover how SAP’s cutting-edge solutions empower retailers to set trends, captivate audiences, and deliver flawlessly. Including a PUMA activation with a daily sweepstakes for a chance to win personalized merchandise.
Connect with SAP Partners
Explore the latest innovations from SAP’s trusted partners, showcasing cutting-edge solutions designed to help retailers operate more efficiently and stay ahead of emerging trends. With thirteen partners located in the SAP Partner Village, and even more partners across the show floor.
Hear from the experts
Visit the SAP Customer Theater to hear from 20+ retailers on how they transformed their operations to compete in today’s hyper-competitive environment. Learn how they’re leveraging SAP technology to optimize margins, lower costs, and drive smarter decisions.
SAP Big Idea Session
Mark your calendar for Monday, January 13 at 11:45 a.m. when Ulta Beauty joins SAP to share how Ulta Beauty embraces innovative business models to expand into new markets, channels, and product categories seamlessly.
Join the Debate
Finally, if you’re looking for a bit of fun and a lot of insight, be sure to catch my session on the Mirakl stage on Tuesday, January 14, at 11:20 a.m.
I hope to see you at NRF! Bring your questions, your curiosity, and your willingness to think differently about what retail can be in 2025. If you’d like to connect or continue the discussion after the show, feel free to reach out. Together, we’ll navigate—and shape—the future of commerce.
